Question

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

13 comments13

Total Forecasters230

Community Prediction57%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 57%

median 57.0%mean 55.5%

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Progress Essay Contest

Ragnarök Series

Lethal autonomous weapon

Ethics

Artificial intelligence arms race

Environmental science

Future of Life Institute

Superintelligence

Climate change denial

AI War: Fleet Command

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

36.9%

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

36%

Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

22%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Progress Essay Contest

Ragnarök Series

Lethal autonomous weapon

Ethics

Artificial intelligence arms race

Environmental science

Future of Life Institute

Superintelligence

Climate change denial

AI War: Fleet Command

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Atlantic•Nov 13, 2024

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Observer (NY)•Nov 13, 2024

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Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

36.9%

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

36%

Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

22%