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Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

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Total Forecasters230

Community Prediction57% (24% - 88%)

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50%

community: 57%

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Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Progress Essay Contest

Ragnarök Series

Lethal autonomous weapon

Ethics

Artificial intelligence arms race

Environmental science

Future of Life Institute

Superintelligence

Climate change denial

AI War: Fleet Command

Human Misuse Will Make Artificial Intelligence More Dangerous

Wired•Dec 14, 2024

The Guardian view on AI’s power, limits, and risks: it may require rethinking the technology

Guardian•Dec 14, 2024

How does AI threaten our environment?

Al Jazeera•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

36.9%

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

36%

Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

22%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Progress Essay Contest

Ragnarök Series

Lethal autonomous weapon

Ethics

Artificial intelligence arms race

Environmental science

Future of Life Institute

Superintelligence

Climate change denial

AI War: Fleet Command

Human Misuse Will Make Artificial Intelligence More Dangerous

Wired•Dec 14, 2024

The Guardian view on AI’s power, limits, and risks: it may require rethinking the technology

Guardian•Dec 14, 2024

How does AI threaten our environment?

Al Jazeera•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

36.9%

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

36%

Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

22%

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Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Make a Prediction

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Comments

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?