Question
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
Total Forecasters239
Community Prediction50% (13% - 86%)
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Opened:Jan 13, 2019
Closes:Dec 31, 2099
Scheduled resolution:Jun 15, 2101
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
36.9%
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?
35%
Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
23.9%
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Authors:
Opened:Jan 13, 2019
Closes:Dec 31, 2099
Scheduled resolution:Jun 15, 2101
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
36.9%
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?
35%
Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
23.9%