Question

Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020?

Resolved :No32%

1 comment1

Total Forecasters81

Community Prediction32% (19% - 43%)

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50%

community: 32%

Did this actually happen?No

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42.3

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18.4

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Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Pandemic Series (2018)

Health & Pandemics

Natural Sciences

2016-2020 Leaderboard

Military science

Epidemiology

Biological Weapons Convention

Influenza A virus subtype H5N1

Genetics

Middle East respiratory syndrome

Bioethics

Medicine

Virology

Bird flu suddenly got serious in 2024, infecting dozens of people

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

Predictive Analysis: Pandemic 2.0 Will Drop Early in Trump Term

PJ Media•Dec 13, 2024

The Conspiracy World Is Pushing Paranoia About a Post-Inauguration “Plandemic”

Mother Jones•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

27%

Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?

32%

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Pandemic Series (2018)

Health & Pandemics

Natural Sciences

2016-2020 Leaderboard

Military science

Epidemiology

Biological Weapons Convention

Influenza A virus subtype H5N1

Genetics

Middle East respiratory syndrome

Bioethics

Medicine

Virology

Bird flu suddenly got serious in 2024, infecting dozens of people

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

Predictive Analysis: Pandemic 2.0 Will Drop Early in Trump Term

PJ Media•Dec 13, 2024

The Conspiracy World Is Pushing Paranoia About a Post-Inauguration “Plandemic”

Mother Jones•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

27%

Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?

32%

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

10%

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Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020?

Make a Prediction

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Comments

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?