Question

Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020?

Resolved :No

1 comment1

Total Forecasters81

Community Prediction32%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 32%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

42.3

Community Peer Score

18.4

median 32.0%mean 34.8%

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Pandemic Series (2018)

Biological Weapons Convention

Influenza A virus subtype H5N1

Genetics

Bioethics

Medicine

Middle East respiratory syndrome

Severe acute respiratory syndrome

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

27%

Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?

32%

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

10%

Comments

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