MetaculusM

Question

If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, will the US control Tehran within one year?

5

Total Forecasters34

Community Prediction15% (9% - 21.6%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 15%

Authors:

Opened:

Jul 4, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2031

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2031

Report: Israel Likely To Bomb Iran in the Coming Months

AntiWar•Feb 13, 2025

US intelligence agencies believe Israel is likely to strike Iranian nuclear facilities this year

CNN•Feb 14, 2025

US officials see fall of Assad as opportunity to force Iranian regime change

FOX News•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Comments

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Authors:

Opened:

Jul 4, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2031

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2031

Report: Israel Likely To Bomb Iran in the Coming Months

AntiWar•Feb 13, 2025

US intelligence agencies believe Israel is likely to strike Iranian nuclear facilities this year

CNN•Feb 14, 2025

US officials see fall of Assad as opportunity to force Iranian regime change

FOX News•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch