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MetaculusM

Question

If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, will the US control Tehran within one year?

5

Total Forecasters33

Community Prediction15% (10% - 24%)

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50%

community: 15%

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Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

US officials see fall of Assad as opportunity to force Iranian regime change

FOX News•Dec 13, 2024

Iran’s Next Move Is Playing the Nuclear Card

PJ Media•Dec 14, 2024

Trump Weighing Military Action Against Iran To Stop Nuclear Weapons Program: Report

Daily Wire•Dec 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

US officials see fall of Assad as opportunity to force Iranian regime change

FOX News•Dec 13, 2024

Iran’s Next Move Is Playing the Nuclear Card

PJ Media•Dec 14, 2024

Trump Weighing Military Action Against Iran To Stop Nuclear Weapons Program: Report

Daily Wire•Dec 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch