Question

Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?

Resolved :No0.5%

20 comments20

Total Forecasters185

Community Prediction0.5% (0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.5%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

98.5

Community Peer Score

4.8

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Authors:

johnnycaffeine lbiii

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

0.1%

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

20%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

johnnycaffeine lbiii

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Geopolitics

2024 Leaderboard

China is getting ready to take on Trump

Spectator (UK)•Dec 16, 2024

Taipei mayor calls for less confrontation as China continues sending ships, planes near island

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

Key facts from the Pentagon's annual China military report

Raw Story•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

0.1%

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

20%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?

Make a Prediction

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Comments

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?