Question

Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?

Resolved:No

78 comments78

Total Forecasters627

Community Prediction

0.1%

(0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

82.7

Community Peer Score

13.1

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Jan 21, 2019

Closes:

Jan 1, 2025

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 21, 2019

Elections

Politics

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Scotland

2014 Scottish independence referendum

United Nations

European Union

United Kingdom

2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum

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Spectator (UK)•Apr 4, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2030?

When the next referendum is held on Scotland's Union with the United Kingdom, will Scotland vote to leave?

55%

When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?

Nov 2032

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Jan 21, 2019

Closes:

Jan 1, 2025

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 21, 2019

Elections

Politics

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Scotland

2014 Scottish independence referendum

United Nations

European Union

United Kingdom

2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum

UK almost certain to host Women’s World Cup 2035 as ‘one valid bid’

Independent•Apr 4, 2025

UK to host Women's World Cup for first time ever in 2035 as rivals drop out to leave England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales as sole bidders

Daily Mail•Apr 4, 2025

Scottish Tory MSP storms out ‘Trump-esque’ party

Spectator (UK)•Apr 4, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2030?

When the next referendum is held on Scotland's Union with the United Kingdom, will Scotland vote to leave?

55%

When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?

Nov 2032

MetaculusM

Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?

Make a Prediction

Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2030?

When the next referendum is held on Scotland's Union with the United Kingdom, will Scotland vote to leave?

When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?

Comments

Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2030?

When the next referendum is held on Scotland's Union with the United Kingdom, will Scotland vote to leave?

When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?

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