Question

Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?

49 comments49

Total Forecasters117

Community Prediction

50%

(40% - 60%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 50%

Authors:

NMorrison RyanBeck

Opened:

Jul 5, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 8, 2024

Economy & Business

Geopolitics

Artificial Intelligence

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Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?

4.9%

Five years after AGI, will there have been a World War III?

10%

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

NMorrison RyanBeck

Opened:

Jul 5, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 8, 2024

Economy & Business

Geopolitics

Artificial Intelligence

A Biologist Refutes Elon Musk’s ‘Adult Diaper’ Theory On Population Decline

Forbes•Mar 22, 2025

Fed Uncertainty? Tariff Wars? Canada A 51st State? All Part Of A Changing World Order

Forbes•Mar 22, 2025

Will Climate Damage Create New Security Risks?

Forbes•Mar 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?

4.9%

Five years after AGI, will there have been a World War III?

10%