MetaculusM

Question

Question

Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?

Resolved :Yes

16

Total Forecasters187

Community Prediction99%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-0.3

Community Peer Score

6.5

median 99.0%mean 96.0%

Authors:

johnnycaffeine Jgalt RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Biden, still smarting from his 2024 exit, turns his attention to Harris – and his own legacy

CNN•Nov 13, 2024

Democrats want to tear up 2028 primaries schedule after crushing 2024 defeats

Independent•Nov 16, 2024

Democratic jockeying for the 2028 presidential election is already underway

NBC•Nov 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Comments

? comments

Authors:

johnnycaffeine Jgalt RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Biden, still smarting from his 2024 exit, turns his attention to Harris – and his own legacy

CNN•Nov 13, 2024

Democrats want to tear up 2028 primaries schedule after crushing 2024 defeats

Independent•Nov 16, 2024

Democratic jockeying for the 2028 presidential election is already underway

NBC•Nov 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch