Question

Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?

19 comments19

Total Forecasters158

Community Prediction30% (23% - 40%)

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50%

community: 30%

Authors:

SynthBioWpnsKill1GHum2050

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Is Nuclear Proliferation Always a Bad Thing?

Red State•Jan 21, 2025

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By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

23%

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

2052-08-27

Comments

? comments

Authors:

SynthBioWpnsKill1GHum2050

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Is Nuclear Proliferation Always a Bad Thing?

Red State•Jan 21, 2025

Bird Flu Symptoms To Watch For in 2025 As Virus Mutates

Newsweek•Jan 20, 2025

Age of the panzootic: scientists warn of more devastating diseases jumping between species

Guardian•Jan 15, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

23%

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

2052-08-27