Question

Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?

19 comments19

Total Forecasters158

Community Prediction32% (23% - 40%)

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50%

community: 32%

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Authors:

SynthBioWpnsKill1GHum2050

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Scheduled resolution:

Lab-made ‘mirror bacteria’ could endanger all life on earth, scientists warn

Independent•Dec 13, 2024

Funding Bill Includes Cash For a DOZEN Biolabs to ‘Research’/Engineer New Viruses

PJ Media•Dec 20, 2024

Nobel Prize-winning scientist reveals the gruesome way deadly 'mirror bacteria' could take over the human body - as scientists call for an urgent halt on all research on it

Daily Mail•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

10%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

27%

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

2052-08-27

Comments

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Authors:

SynthBioWpnsKill1GHum2050

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Lab-made ‘mirror bacteria’ could endanger all life on earth, scientists warn

Independent•Dec 13, 2024

Funding Bill Includes Cash For a DOZEN Biolabs to ‘Research’/Engineer New Viruses

PJ Media•Dec 20, 2024

Nobel Prize-winning scientist reveals the gruesome way deadly 'mirror bacteria' could take over the human body - as scientists call for an urgent halt on all research on it

Daily Mail•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

10%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

27%

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

2052-08-27

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Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?

Make a Prediction

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

Comments

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?