Question

Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?

19 comments19

Total Forecasters158

Community Prediction32% (23% - 40%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 32%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

SynthBioWpnsKill1GHum2050

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Lab-made ‘mirror bacteria’ could endanger all life on earth, scientists warn

Independent•Dec 13, 2024

Predictive Analysis: Pandemic 2.0 Will Drop Early in Trump Term

PJ Media•Dec 13, 2024

Scientists issue an urgent warning over lab-made 'mirror bacteria' that could wipe out mankind

Daily Mail•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

10%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

27%

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

2052-08-27

Comments

? comments

Authors:

SynthBioWpnsKill1GHum2050

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Lab-made ‘mirror bacteria’ could endanger all life on earth, scientists warn

Independent•Dec 13, 2024

Predictive Analysis: Pandemic 2.0 Will Drop Early in Trump Term

PJ Media•Dec 13, 2024

Scientists issue an urgent warning over lab-made 'mirror bacteria' that could wipe out mankind

Daily Mail•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

10%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

27%

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

2052-08-27

Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

MetaculusM

Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?

Make a Prediction

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

Comments

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?