Question

Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?

19 comments19

Total Forecasters158

Community Prediction30% (21% - 40%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 30%

Authors:

SynthBioWpnsKill1GHum2050

Opened:

Feb 9, 2019

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

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By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

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When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

2052-08-27

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