Question

Five years after AGI, will humans be extinct?

11 comments11

Total Forecasters124

Community Prediction7% (0.5% - 30%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 7%

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Jul 22, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2036

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2036

Five Years After AGI

Alvin's Community Page

Artificial Intelligence

OpenAI boss Sam Altman says human-level intelligence is coming – and it won’t be fair

Independent•Feb 12, 2025

Meta says it may stop development of AI systems it deems too risky

TechCrunch•Feb 16, 2025

Experts share chilling warning over DeepSeek as it sparks 'Lord Of the Rings race' for superhuman intelligence

Daily Mail•Feb 15, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?

2046-03-01

Five years after AGI, how happy will people be?

5.62

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Jul 22, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2036

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2036

Five Years After AGI

Alvin's Community Page

Artificial Intelligence

OpenAI boss Sam Altman says human-level intelligence is coming – and it won’t be fair

Independent•Feb 12, 2025

Meta says it may stop development of AI systems it deems too risky

TechCrunch•Feb 16, 2025

Experts share chilling warning over DeepSeek as it sparks 'Lord Of the Rings race' for superhuman intelligence

Daily Mail•Feb 15, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?

2046-03-01

Five years after AGI, how happy will people be?

5.62