Question

Five years after AGI, will humans be extinct?

11 comments11

Total Forecasters127

Community Prediction

(0.1% - 30%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 2%

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Jul 22, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2036

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2036

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 23, 2024

Five Years After AGI

Forecasting AI Futures

Artificial Intelligence

Reid Hoffman: ‘Start using AI deeply. It is a huge intelligence amplifier’

Guardian•Mar 23, 2025

The Perilous Race to Superintelligent A.I.: Progress or Pandora’s Box?

Observer (NY)•Mar 22, 2025

Elon Musk’s AI predictions should terrify us

Spectator (UK)•Mar 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?

2044

Five years after AGI, how happy will people be?

5.71

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Jul 22, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2036

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2036

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 23, 2024

Five Years After AGI

Forecasting AI Futures

Artificial Intelligence

Reid Hoffman: ‘Start using AI deeply. It is a huge intelligence amplifier’

Guardian•Mar 23, 2025

The Perilous Race to Superintelligent A.I.: Progress or Pandora’s Box?

Observer (NY)•Mar 22, 2025

Elon Musk’s AI predictions should terrify us

Spectator (UK)•Mar 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?

2044

Five years after AGI, how happy will people be?

5.71