Question

Five years after AGI, will nuclear deterrence no longer hold?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters28

Community Prediction

50%

(25% - 65%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 50%

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Jul 22, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2036

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2036

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 23, 2024

Five Years After AGI

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Artificial Intelligence

France Can't Deploy New Air-Launched Nuclear-Tipped Missiles Before 2035

Lew Rockwell•Mar 24, 2025

The Perilous Race to Superintelligent A.I.: Progress or Pandora’s Box?

Observer (NY)•Mar 22, 2025

Ballistic missile interceptors and pamphlets dropping in France - how Europe is preparing for nuclear war

Independent•Mar 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?

1.13k

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2035

Five years after AGI, will there have been a World War III?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Jul 22, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2036

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2036

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 23, 2024

Five Years After AGI

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Artificial Intelligence

France Can't Deploy New Air-Launched Nuclear-Tipped Missiles Before 2035

Lew Rockwell•Mar 24, 2025

The Perilous Race to Superintelligent A.I.: Progress or Pandora’s Box?

Observer (NY)•Mar 22, 2025

Ballistic missile interceptors and pamphlets dropping in France - how Europe is preparing for nuclear war

Independent•Mar 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?

1.13k

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2035

Five years after AGI, will there have been a World War III?

10%