MetaculusM

Question

Five years after AGI, will nuclear deterrence no longer hold?

6

Total Forecasters26

Community Prediction37.4% (10% - 67%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 37.4%

Authors:

Opened:

Jul 22, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2036

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2036

Five Years After AGI

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Artificial Intelligence

Experts share chilling warning over DeepSeek as it sparks 'Lord Of the Rings race' for superhuman intelligence

Daily Mail•Feb 15, 2025

I met the ‘godfathers of AI’ in Paris – here’s what they told me to really worry about | Alexander Hurst

Guardian•Feb 16, 2025

Inside secret US lab where US will begin testing nukes again amid fears of WWIII

Daily Mail•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Comments

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Authors:

Opened:

Jul 22, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2036

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2036

Five Years After AGI

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Artificial Intelligence

Experts share chilling warning over DeepSeek as it sparks 'Lord Of the Rings race' for superhuman intelligence

Daily Mail•Feb 15, 2025

I met the ‘godfathers of AI’ in Paris – here’s what they told me to really worry about | Alexander Hurst

Guardian•Feb 16, 2025

Inside secret US lab where US will begin testing nukes again amid fears of WWIII

Daily Mail•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch