Question

Five years after AGI, will nuclear deterrence no longer hold?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters25

Community Prediction35% (10% - 50%)

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50%

community: 35%

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Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Five Years After AGI

Nuclear Technology & Risks

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50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?

1.2k

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2036-04-02

Five years after AGI, will there have been a World War III?

10%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Five Years After AGI

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Artificial Intelligence

AI 'godfather' Geoffrey Hinton says AI will one day unite nations against a common existential threat

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

Does Putin's New 'Oreshnik' Missile Transform Rules of Nuclear Warfare?

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

We Are One-Quarter Through War's Last Century

OpEdNews•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?

1.2k

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2036-04-02

Five years after AGI, will there have been a World War III?

10%

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Five years after AGI, will nuclear deterrence no longer hold?

Make a Prediction

50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

Five years after AGI, will there have been a World War III?

Comments

50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

Five years after AGI, will there have been a World War III?

50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

Five years after AGI, will there have been a World War III?

50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

Five years after AGI, will there have been a World War III?