MetaculusM

Question

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

17

Total Forecasters104

Community Prediction23% (15% - 40%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 23%

Authors:

Opened:

Jul 17, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

Bright Line Watch

Health & Pandemics

2024-2025 Leaderboard

Bird flu leads to severe human illness and state of emergency, experts discuss risk

FOX News•Jan 31, 2025

U.S. Has a First Case of Severe Bird Flu, CDC Confirms in H5N1 Update

Scientific American•Feb 1, 2025

Is Bird Flu a Potential Pandemic? Dangers of the Outbreak Explained

Newsweek•Feb 1, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Comments

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Authors:

Opened:

Jul 17, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

Bright Line Watch

Health & Pandemics

2024-2025 Leaderboard

Bird flu leads to severe human illness and state of emergency, experts discuss risk

FOX News•Jan 31, 2025

U.S. Has a First Case of Severe Bird Flu, CDC Confirms in H5N1 Update

Scientific American•Feb 1, 2025

Is Bird Flu a Potential Pandemic? Dangers of the Outbreak Explained

Newsweek•Feb 1, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch