MetaculusM

Question

Five years after AGI, will a ‘long reflection’ be underway?

2

Total Forecasters25

Community Prediction3% (1% - 10%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 3%

Authors:

Opened:

Jul 22, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2036

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2036

Five Years After AGI

Artificial Intelligence

The Thought Architecture of the Cognitive Age

Psychology Today•Feb 27, 2025

AI and the Asymptote of Consciousness

Psychology Today•Mar 1, 2025

The CEO of Anthropic thinks it may be impossible to warn people about the risks of AI — but he's still going to try

Business Insider•Mar 1, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Comments

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Authors:

Opened:

Jul 22, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2036

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2036

Five Years After AGI

Artificial Intelligence

The Thought Architecture of the Cognitive Age

Psychology Today•Feb 27, 2025

AI and the Asymptote of Consciousness

Psychology Today•Mar 1, 2025

The CEO of Anthropic thinks it may be impossible to warn people about the risks of AI — but he's still going to try

Business Insider•Mar 1, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch