📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be?

41
43
Total Forecasters124
Community Prediction1.1×10¹⁷ (260T - 3.3×10¹⁹)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

weight:
My Prediction
community
<1T
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>1×10²⁶
...
...
...
...
...
7.6%
259.7T
1.1×10¹⁷
3.3×10¹⁹
4.5%
Authors:
Anthony
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
Natural Sciences
Neuroscience
Thermodynamics
Turing test
Philosophy
Information theory
Physics
FLOPS
Measurement
Landauer's principle
Psychology

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