Question
What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be?
Total Forecasters124
Community Prediction
8.2×10¹⁶
(197T - 2.6×10¹⁹)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <1T | 8.2% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 197.2T | — |
| median | 8.2×10¹⁶ | — |
| upper 75% | 2.6×10¹⁹ | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >1×10²⁶ | 4.3% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Mar 13, 2019
Closes:Jan 1, 2075
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2075
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 14, 2019
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Mar 13, 2019
Closes:Jan 1, 2075
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2075
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 14, 2019
