Question
What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be?
Total Forecasters124
Community Prediction1.1×10¹⁷ (260T - 3.3×10¹⁹)
Make a Prediction
CDF
weight:
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <1T | 7.6% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 259.7T | — |
| median | 1.1×10¹⁷ | — |
| upper 75% | 3.3×10¹⁹ | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >1×10²⁶ | 4.5% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Mar 13, 2019
Closes:Jan 1, 2075
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2075
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Mar 13, 2019
Closes:Jan 1, 2075
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2075
