Question

Five years after AGI, how happy will people be?

Total Forecasters32

Community Prediction5.62 (5.04 - 6.63)

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CDF

weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	5.035	5.618	6.626
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	5.035	—
median	5.618	—
upper 75%	6.626	—

Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Jul 27, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2036

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2036

Five Years After AGI

Social Sciences

Artificial Intelligence

Agency Amid AI: Why It Matters, and How to Protect It

Psychology Today•Feb 14, 2025

Global disunity, energy concerns and the shadow of Musk: key takeaways from the Paris AI summit

Guardian•Feb 16, 2025

I met the ‘godfathers of AI’ in Paris – here’s what they told me to really worry about | Alexander Hurst

Guardian•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Five years after AGI, how much democracy will there be?

13.5

Five years after AGI, what will be humanity’s energy consumption?

425k

Five years after AGI, will there be widely available radical life extension treatment?

50%

Comments

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Authors:

will_aldred

Opened:

Jul 27, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2036

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2036

Five Years After AGI

Social Sciences

Artificial Intelligence

Agency Amid AI: Why It Matters, and How to Protect It

Psychology Today•Feb 14, 2025

Global disunity, energy concerns and the shadow of Musk: key takeaways from the Paris AI summit

Guardian•Feb 16, 2025

I met the ‘godfathers of AI’ in Paris – here’s what they told me to really worry about | Alexander Hurst

Guardian•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Five years after AGI, how much democracy will there be?

13.5

Five years after AGI, what will be humanity’s energy consumption?

425k

Five years after AGI, will there be widely available radical life extension treatment?

50%