Question

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

8 comments8

Total Forecasters43

Community Prediction3% (1% - 26%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 3%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

lbiii

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Conditional Trees: AI Risk

Technology

Artificial Intelligence

AI 'godfather' Geoffrey Hinton says AI will one day unite nations against a common existential threat

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

Human Misuse Will Make Artificial Intelligence More Dangerous

Wired•Dec 14, 2024

The Guardian view on AI’s power, limits, and risks: it may require rethinking the technology

Guardian•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

61.5%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

36.9%

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

30%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

lbiii

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Conditional Trees: AI Risk

Technology

Artificial Intelligence

AI 'godfather' Geoffrey Hinton says AI will one day unite nations against a common existential threat

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

Human Misuse Will Make Artificial Intelligence More Dangerous

Wired•Dec 14, 2024

The Guardian view on AI’s power, limits, and risks: it may require rethinking the technology

Guardian•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

61.5%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

36.9%

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

30%

Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

MetaculusM

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Make a Prediction

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

Comments

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?