Question

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

7 comments7

Total Forecasters16

Community Prediction7.9% (3% - 23%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 7.9%

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Authors:

lbiii

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Conditional Trees: AI Risk

Technology

Artificial Intelligence

The Trump administration could reverse progress on AI regulation

Al Jazeera•Dec 13, 2024

Human Misuse Will Make Artificial Intelligence More Dangerous

Wired•Dec 14, 2024

Generative AI and Climate Change Are on a Collision Course

Wired•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

70%

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

61.5%

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Model Autonomy?

70%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

lbiii

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Conditional Trees: AI Risk

Technology

Artificial Intelligence

The Trump administration could reverse progress on AI regulation

Al Jazeera•Dec 13, 2024

Human Misuse Will Make Artificial Intelligence More Dangerous

Wired•Dec 14, 2024

Generative AI and Climate Change Are on a Collision Course

Wired•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

70%

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

61.5%

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Model Autonomy?

70%

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Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

Make a Prediction

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Model Autonomy?

Comments

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Model Autonomy?

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Model Autonomy?

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Model Autonomy?