Question

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters24

Community Prediction9% (5% - 50%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 9%

Authors:

lbiii

Opened:

Aug 11, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jul 1, 2030

Conditional Trees: AI Risk

Technology

Artificial Intelligence

Agency Amid AI: Why It Matters, and How to Protect It

Psychology Today•Feb 14, 2025

AI-Powered Crypto: A Smart Bet, Or A Dangerous Gamble?

Forbes•Feb 16, 2025

The Trump administration could reverse progress on AI regulation

Al Jazeera•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

95%

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

69%

Will the US government maintain a public list of incidents related to AI safety on January 1, 2030?

60%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

lbiii

Opened:

Aug 11, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jul 1, 2030

Conditional Trees: AI Risk

Technology

Artificial Intelligence

Agency Amid AI: Why It Matters, and How to Protect It

Psychology Today•Feb 14, 2025

AI-Powered Crypto: A Smart Bet, Or A Dangerous Gamble?

Forbes•Feb 16, 2025

The Trump administration could reverse progress on AI regulation

Al Jazeera•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

95%

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

69%

Will the US government maintain a public list of incidents related to AI safety on January 1, 2030?

60%