Question

Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?

Resolved :No2%

9 comments9

Total Forecasters39

Community Prediction2% (1% - 4%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 2%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

68.2

Community Peer Score

7.8

Authors:

johnnycaffeine pedroacosta

Opened:

Aug 10, 2024

Closes:

Aug 24, 2024

Resolves:

Aug 25, 2024

Health & Pandemics

2024 Leaderboard

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Newsweek•Jan 26, 2025

Infectious disease expert reveals the pathogens that could spark another pandemic in 2025

Daily Mail•Jan 28, 2025

Urgent warning as 7th case of ultra-deadly mpox strain now detected in UK

Daily Mail•Jan 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

1.4%

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?

11%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

johnnycaffeine pedroacosta

Opened:

Aug 10, 2024

Closes:

Aug 24, 2024

Resolves:

Aug 25, 2024

Health & Pandemics

2024 Leaderboard

HMPV, Bird Flu and Norovirus: What Should US Be Most Worried About?

Newsweek•Jan 26, 2025

Infectious disease expert reveals the pathogens that could spark another pandemic in 2025

Daily Mail•Jan 28, 2025

Urgent warning as 7th case of ultra-deadly mpox strain now detected in UK

Daily Mail•Jan 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

1.4%

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?

11%