Question
When, before 2040, will George R. R. Martin's "The Winds of Winter" be released?
Total Forecasters18
Community Prediction
Aug 2033
(25 Jun 2029 - Jan 2037)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <176722560000% | 10.5% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 25 Jun 2029 | — |
| median | Aug 2033 | — |
| upper 75% | Jan 2037 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >220898880000% | 13.5% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Sep 3, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2039
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2040
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 6, 2024
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
When will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released?
31 Dec 2026
Will George R. R. Martin publish the sixth novel in "A Song of Ice and Fire" before Patrick Rothfuss publishes the third novel in "The Kingkiller Chronicle"?
38%
When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?
Aug 2052
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Sep 3, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2039
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2040
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 6, 2024
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
When will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released?
31 Dec 2026
Will George R. R. Martin publish the sixth novel in "A Song of Ice and Fire" before Patrick Rothfuss publishes the third novel in "The Kingkiller Chronicle"?
38%
When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?
Aug 2052