🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

When will the first successful entirely artificial extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude?

Community Prediction2031-04-132048-05-14Nov 19Nov 23Nov 27Dec 01Dec 05Dec 09Dec 13Dec 17Dec 21Dec 25Dec 29Jan 02Jan 06Jan 10Jan 14Jan 18now
Total Forecasters93
Community Prediction2043-02-28 (2034-07-24 - 2060-03-24)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

2020-01-012020-03-022020-05-192020-08-262020-12-312021-06-122022-01-062022-09-282023-09-012024-11-072026-05-142028-04-192030-10-082033-12-032037-12-132043-02-052049-09-022058-01-252068-10-172082-07-012100-01-01
weight:
My Prediction
community
<2020-01-01
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2100-01-01
...
...
...
...
...
0.1%
2034-07-24 02:10
2043-02-28 10:50
2060-03-24 10:31
10.5%
Authors:
Opened:May 28, 2019
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100

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