Question

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?

Resolved :Yes99%

102 comments102

Total Forecasters686

Community Prediction99% (99% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

90.6

Community Peer Score

20.9

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Verity

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

2016-2025 Leaderboard

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Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2036-04-02

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

0.4%

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