Question

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?

Resolved :Yes

102 comments102

Total Forecasters686

Community Prediction99%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

90.6

Community Peer Score

20.9

median 99.0%mean 97.0%

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Verity

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Cuban Missile Crisis

Nuclear terrorism

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2037-05-28

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Verity

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Cuban Missile Crisis

Nuclear terrorism

China Warned About US Nuclear Missile Test: Pentagon

Newsweek•Nov 13, 2024

A new nuclear arms race is beginning. It will be far more dangerous than the last one

Guardian•Nov 14, 2024

Conflicts of Interest: Could Ukraine Try to Make Nukes?

AntiWar•Nov 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2037-05-28