Question

If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen?

17 comments17

Total Forecasters160

Community Prediction2036-07-21 (2029-10-12 - 2051-04-19)

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My Prediction

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lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

2029-10-12 08:24

2036-07-21 14:29

2051-04-19 14:53

Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

Artificial Intelligence

Which AI Companies Are the Safest—and Least Safe?

Time•Dec 13, 2024

AI 'godfather' Geoffrey Hinton says AI will one day unite nations against a common existential threat

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

The limits of intelligence — Why AI advancement could be slowing down

CNBC•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

36.9%

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

57%

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?

2048-08-08

Comments

? comments

Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Outcomes

Artificial Intelligence

Which AI Companies Are the Safest—and Least Safe?

Time•Dec 13, 2024

AI 'godfather' Geoffrey Hinton says AI will one day unite nations against a common existential threat

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

The limits of intelligence — Why AI advancement could be slowing down

CNBC•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

36.9%

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

57%

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?

2048-08-08

Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

MetaculusM

If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen?

Make a Prediction

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?

Comments

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?