Question

When Will an AI be Amongst the Best Forecasters on Metaculus

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Total Forecasters1

Community Prediction2027-11

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2034-01

...

2026-06

2027-11

2029-11

4.1%

Authors:

DavidA.B.Mathers

Opened:

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David Mathers' Community

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

2030-10

Will the winning bot in any Quarterly AI Benchmarking tournament beat the human Pro aggregate before Q3 of 2025?

25%

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

Comments

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Authors:

DavidA.B.Mathers

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

David Mathers' Community

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

2030-10

Will the winning bot in any Quarterly AI Benchmarking tournament beat the human Pro aggregate before Q3 of 2025?

25%

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

MetaculusM

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When Will an AI be Amongst the Best Forecasters on Metaculus

Make a Prediction

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

Will the winning bot in any Quarterly AI Benchmarking tournament beat the human Pro aggregate before Q3 of 2025?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

Comments

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

Will the winning bot in any Quarterly AI Benchmarking tournament beat the human Pro aggregate before Q3 of 2025?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

Will the winning bot in any Quarterly AI Benchmarking tournament beat the human Pro aggregate before Q3 of 2025?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

Will the winning bot in any Quarterly AI Benchmarking tournament beat the human Pro aggregate before Q3 of 2025?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?