Question

When will the human brain first be successfully emulated in full?

26 comments26

Total Forecasters170

Community Prediction2074-08-06 (2040-12-26 - 2206-06-11)

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weight:

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community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2300-06-25

...

2040-12-26 12:06

2074-08-06 03:14

2206-06-11 03:53

19.8%

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Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Elon Musk's brain-implant firm Neuralink did its first tests in 2024

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

With Willow, Will Knowledge Takes on a Life of Its Own?

Psychology Today•Dec 14, 2024

The future of neuroscience could be wireless

Business Insider•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?

177k

If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, how much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost?

18.7k

Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?

1.5%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Elon Musk's brain-implant firm Neuralink did its first tests in 2024

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

With Willow, Will Knowledge Takes on a Life of Its Own?

Psychology Today•Dec 14, 2024

The future of neuroscience could be wireless

Business Insider•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?

177k

If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, how much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost?

18.7k

Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?

1.5%

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When will the human brain first be successfully emulated in full?

Make a Prediction

If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?

If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, how much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost?

Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?

Comments

If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?

If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, how much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost?

Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?

If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?

If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, how much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost?

Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?

If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?

If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, how much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost?

Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?