Question

When will the human brain first be successfully emulated in full?

26 comments26

Total Forecasters170

Community Prediction2074-08-06 (2040-12-26 - 2206-06-11)

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weight:

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community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2300-06-25

...

2040-12-26 12:06

2074-08-06 03:14

2206-06-11 03:53

19.8%

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Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Human Brain Operates at a Stunningly Slow Pace

Scientific American•Dec 18, 2024

Werner Herzog Turns His Lens on the Brain

Psychology Today•Dec 18, 2024

How Human Hubris Beats Artificial Intelligence

Psychology Today•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?

177k

If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, how much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost?

18.7k

Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?

1.5%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Human Brain Operates at a Stunningly Slow Pace

Scientific American•Dec 18, 2024

Werner Herzog Turns His Lens on the Brain

Psychology Today•Dec 18, 2024

How Human Hubris Beats Artificial Intelligence

Psychology Today•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?

177k

If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, how much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost?

18.7k

Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?

1.5%

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When will the human brain first be successfully emulated in full?

Make a Prediction

If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?

If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, how much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost?

Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?

Comments

If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?

If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, how much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost?

Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?

If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?

If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, how much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost?

Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?

If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?

If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, how much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost?

Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?