Question

Date of the first AI model capable of autonomous self-replication

Total Forecasters2

Community Prediction2026-11-05 (2025-12-07 - 2027-10-16)

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CDF

weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2066-01-01
community	Dec 2025	Nov 2026	Oct 2027	0.1%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	Dec 2025	—
median	Nov 2026	—
upper 75%	Oct 2027	—
Upper bound
>2066-01-01	0.1%	—

Authors:

DavidA.B.Mathers

Opened:

Sep 12, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2065

Scheduled resolution:

Mar 1, 2066

David Mathers' Community

Artificial Intelligence

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What happens when AI, like ChatGPT, is trained on its own data? : Short Wave : NPR

NPR Online News•Feb 19, 2025

The shine began to wear off AI in 2024 as advances slowed down

New Scientist•Feb 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

70%

Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?

15%

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

2031-03-13

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