Question

Date of the first AI model capable of autonomous self-replication

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Community Prediction2027-03-12

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>2066-01-01

...

2026-08-01 18:24

2027-03-12 11:27

2027-12-08 22:49

0.1%

Authors:

DavidA.B.Mathers

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David Mathers' Community

Artificial Intelligence

Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?

18%

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

95%

When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 3 AI (agents that can reliable execute tasks over several days)

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Authors:

DavidA.B.Mathers

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

David Mathers' Community

Artificial Intelligence

OpenAI’s take on AI agents could come in January

TechCrunch•Nov 14, 2024

OpenAI reportedly plans to launch an AI agent early next year

Verge•Nov 14, 2024

OpenAI Nears Launch Of AI Agent Tool To Automate Tasks For Users

•Nov 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?

18%

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

95%

When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 3 AI (agents that can reliable execute tasks over several days)