Question

Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025?

Resolved :Yes99%

35 comments35

Total Forecasters116

Community Prediction99% (99% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

4.0

Community Peer Score

1.5

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Sep 20, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2025

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Geopolitics

2024 Leaderboard

Israel says troops will stay in five locations across southern Lebanon

Al Jazeera•Feb 18, 2025

Israel Says It Will Keep Troops ‘Temporarily’ in 5 Points in Lebanon

New York Times•Feb 17, 2025

Hezbollah leader warns Israel to withdraw forces from Lebanon or else: ‘We will know how to deal with it’

New York Post•Feb 17, 2025

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2025-09-26

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Sep 20, 2024

Closes:

Jan 1, 2025

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Geopolitics

2024 Leaderboard

Israel says troops will stay in five locations across southern Lebanon

Al Jazeera•Feb 18, 2025

Israel Says It Will Keep Troops ‘Temporarily’ in 5 Points in Lebanon

New York Times•Feb 17, 2025

Hezbollah leader warns Israel to withdraw forces from Lebanon or else: ‘We will know how to deal with it’

New York Post•Feb 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?

When, in 2025, will the United States or Israel attack an Islamic Republic of Iran nuclear facility?

2025-09-26