Question
How much will GiveWell update its cost-effectiveness estimate of GiveDirectly based on the results of the 2023-2024 follow-up of the Cash Transfers Study by UC Berkeley?
Total Forecasters11
Community Prediction50 (32.2 - 50)
Make a Prediction
CDF
weight:
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <-25 | 1.0% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 32.24 | — |
| median | >50 | — |
| upper 75% | >50 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >50 | 57.6% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Oct 21, 2024
Closes:Jul 1, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jul 1, 2025
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Oct 21, 2024
Closes:Jul 1, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jul 1, 2025
