Question

How much will GiveWell update its cost-effectiveness estimate of GiveDirectly based on the results of the 2023-2024 follow-up of the Cash Transfers Study by UC Berkeley?

12 comments12

Total Forecasters8

Community Prediction50 (36.8 - 50)

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weight:

My Prediction

community

<-25

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>50

...

0.9%

36.82

>50

64.6%

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Authors:

skmmcj

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Scheduled resolution:

Forecast With GiveWell

Economy & Business

2024-2025 Leaderboard

Inside MacKenzie Scott’s $2 Billion In 2024 Giving–And What’s Ahead

Forbes•Dec 20, 2024

Top 10 Investment Themes For 2025

Forbes•Dec 21, 2024

How Much MacKenzie Scott Gave Away Each Year Since 2019

Observer (NY)•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the study of supplying eyeglasses to near-vision impaired adults in Kenya and India find a boost to household consumption of the following levels?

Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?

32%

Will the study of oral rehydration solution and zinc distribution in Sierra Leone find a statistically significant increase in ORS/zinc usage by the recipients?

80%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

skmmcj

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Forecast With GiveWell

Economy & Business

2024-2025 Leaderboard

Inside MacKenzie Scott’s $2 Billion In 2024 Giving–And What’s Ahead

Forbes•Dec 20, 2024

Top 10 Investment Themes For 2025

Forbes•Dec 21, 2024

How Much MacKenzie Scott Gave Away Each Year Since 2019

Observer (NY)•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the study of supplying eyeglasses to near-vision impaired adults in Kenya and India find a boost to household consumption of the following levels?

Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?

32%

Will the study of oral rehydration solution and zinc distribution in Sierra Leone find a statistically significant increase in ORS/zinc usage by the recipients?

80%

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How much will GiveWell update its cost-effectiveness estimate of GiveDirectly based on the results of the 2023-2024 follow-up of the Cash Transfers Study by UC Berkeley?

Make a Prediction

Will the study of supplying eyeglasses to near-vision impaired adults in Kenya and India find a boost to household consumption of the following levels?

Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?

Will the study of oral rehydration solution and zinc distribution in Sierra Leone find a statistically significant increase in ORS/zinc usage by the recipients?

Comments

Will the study of supplying eyeglasses to near-vision impaired adults in Kenya and India find a boost to household consumption of the following levels?

Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?

Will the study of oral rehydration solution and zinc distribution in Sierra Leone find a statistically significant increase in ORS/zinc usage by the recipients?

Will the study of supplying eyeglasses to near-vision impaired adults in Kenya and India find a boost to household consumption of the following levels?

Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?

Will the study of oral rehydration solution and zinc distribution in Sierra Leone find a statistically significant increase in ORS/zinc usage by the recipients?

Will the study of supplying eyeglasses to near-vision impaired adults in Kenya and India find a boost to household consumption of the following levels?

Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?

Will the study of oral rehydration solution and zinc distribution in Sierra Leone find a statistically significant increase in ORS/zinc usage by the recipients?