Question

How much will GiveWell update its cost-effectiveness estimate of GiveDirectly based on the results of the 2023-2024 follow-up of the Cash Transfers Study by UC Berkeley?

6 comments6

Total Forecasters4

Community Prediction10.8

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

<-25

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>50

...

1.1%

1.784

10.78

21.23

1.9%

Authors:

skmmcj

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Forecast With GiveWell

Economy & Business

Will the study of supplying eyeglasses to near-vision impaired adults in Kenya and India find a boost to household consumption of the following levels?

Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?

32%

Will the study of oral rehydration solution and zinc distribution in Sierra Leone find a statistically significant increase in ORS/zinc usage by the recipients?

90%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

skmmcj

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Forecast With GiveWell

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Will the study of supplying eyeglasses to near-vision impaired adults in Kenya and India find a boost to household consumption of the following levels?

Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?

32%

Will the study of oral rehydration solution and zinc distribution in Sierra Leone find a statistically significant increase in ORS/zinc usage by the recipients?

90%