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Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?

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Community Prediction14% (6% - 19%)

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Artificial Intelligence

2024 Leaderboard

Inside the launch — and future — of ChatGPT

Verge•Dec 13, 2024

Google: The Long-Term Threat From OpenAI Is Significant

Forbes•Dec 14, 2024

‘Reasoning’ AI models have become a trend, for better or worse

TechCrunch•Dec 14, 2024

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Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

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On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

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Authors:

skmmcj

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Artificial Intelligence

2024 Leaderboard

Inside the launch — and future — of ChatGPT

Verge•Dec 13, 2024

Google: The Long-Term Threat From OpenAI Is Significant

Forbes•Dec 14, 2024

‘Reasoning’ AI models have become a trend, for better or worse

TechCrunch•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

0.1%

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

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Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?

Make a Prediction

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

Comments

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?