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Question
Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?
Total Forecasters129
Community Prediction28%
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median 28.0%mean 32.1%
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Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?
Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?
0.1%
On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?
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Authors:
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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?
Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?
0.1%