Question

Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

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Total Forecasters36

Community Prediction92% (82% - 97%)

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50%

community: 92%

Authors:

skmmcj

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Technology

The end of Cruise is the beginning of a risky new phase for autonomous vehicles

Verge•Dec 13, 2024

Roam.ai Blog - Roam.ai

•Dec 14, 2024

AI drive in transportation should be human-centric

•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will a majority of these US cities have autonomous public transit systems?

2041-03-03

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

Will the 2030 light duty pure battery electric vehicle sales share exceed 35% in the US through November 2030?

25%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

skmmcj

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Technology

The end of Cruise is the beginning of a risky new phase for autonomous vehicles

Verge•Dec 13, 2024

Roam.ai Blog - Roam.ai

•Dec 14, 2024

AI drive in transportation should be human-centric

•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will a majority of these US cities have autonomous public transit systems?

2041-03-03

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

Will the 2030 light duty pure battery electric vehicle sales share exceed 35% in the US through November 2030?

25%

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Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?

Make a Prediction

When will a majority of these US cities have autonomous public transit systems?

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

Will the 2030 light duty pure battery electric vehicle sales share exceed 35% in the US through November 2030?

Comments

When will a majority of these US cities have autonomous public transit systems?

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

Will the 2030 light duty pure battery electric vehicle sales share exceed 35% in the US through November 2030?

When will a majority of these US cities have autonomous public transit systems?

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

Will the 2030 light duty pure battery electric vehicle sales share exceed 35% in the US through November 2030?

When will a majority of these US cities have autonomous public transit systems?

When will 5%, 10%, and 20% of the US population have access to L4 or L5 self-driving?

Will the 2030 light duty pure battery electric vehicle sales share exceed 35% in the US through November 2030?