Question

What percentage of the national popular vote will third party candidates hold by 6 pm on 11/07, in total?

Resolved :1.513.04

Total Forecasters12

Community Prediction3.04 (1.72 - 4.84)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	1.722	3.041	4.841
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	1.722	—
median	3.041	—
upper 75%	4.841	—

What was the final result?1.51

Community Baseline Score

147.7

Community Peer Score

15.6

Authors:

jello

Opened:

Oct 24, 2024

Closes:

Oct 31, 2024

Resolves:

Nov 7, 2024

Brown University Forecasting Team

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Newsweek•Feb 16, 2025

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When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?

2069-09-07

Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?

50%

Will anyone other than the Democratic or Republican nominee win a state in the 2028 US presidential election?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

jello

Opened:

Oct 24, 2024

Closes:

Oct 31, 2024

Resolves:

Nov 7, 2024

Brown University Forecasting Team

Politics

Heisman Finalist Voting

Associated Press•Feb 16, 2025

AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Wisconsin’s spring primary

Associated Press•Feb 16, 2025

Democrats 2028 Primary Polls: What Early Data Shows

Newsweek•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?

2069-09-07

Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?

50%