Question

Will Iran execute or be targeted in a national military attack between 6 June 2019 and 5 October 2019?

Resolved :Yes

41 comments41

Total Forecasters75

Community Prediction38%

Make a Prediction

community: 38%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-33.3

Community Peer Score

15.2

median 38.0%mean 41.0%

Authors:

datscilly

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

United Nations Security Council

Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024? → US Iran War Before 2025?

Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?

13%

Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

datscilly

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

United Nations Security Council

Iran prepares for full-scale war with Israel: Ayatollah orders military to plan for attack if Netanyahu gives green light to hit major sites in response to missile barrage

Daily Mail•Oct 25, 2024

Will Iran Go to War With Israel? What We Know

Newsweek•Oct 25, 2024

Israel Bombs Tehran, US Expects Iranian Response

AntiWar•Oct 26, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024? → US Iran War Before 2025?

Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?

13%