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Question
By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark?
Resolved :NoTotal Forecasters74
Community Prediction85%
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Did this actually happen?No
Community Baseline Score
-125.7
Community Peer Score
-14.8
median 85.0%mean 82.0%
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On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?
What will be the best score on the GAIA benchmark before 2025?
47.6
What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2030?
96.6
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Authors:
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?
What will be the best score on the GAIA benchmark before 2025?
47.6
What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2030?
96.6