Question

When will an AI pass the laugh test?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters93

Community Prediction2025-10-14 (2024-04-14 - 2029-08-19)

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community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2050-08-06

...

2024-04-14 12:07

2025-10-14 08:25

2029-08-19 07:23

8.3%

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Authors:

Anthony

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AI Demonstrations

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Why AI must learn to admit ignorance and say 'I don't know'

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

With iOS 18.2, Apple completes its AI starter kit

Verge•Dec 13, 2024

Liar, Liar: Latest ChatGPT Model Deceives Testers, Resists Shutdown Attempts

Breitbart•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

2028-12-04

Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?

99%

How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?

1.34

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Demonstrations

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Why AI must learn to admit ignorance and say 'I don't know'

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

With iOS 18.2, Apple completes its AI starter kit

Verge•Dec 13, 2024

Liar, Liar: Latest ChatGPT Model Deceives Testers, Resists Shutdown Attempts

Breitbart•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

2028-12-04

Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?

99%

How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?

1.34

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When will an AI pass the laugh test?

Make a Prediction

When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?

How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?

Comments

When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?

How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?

When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?

How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?

When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?

Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?

How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?