Question

If there is a biotechnological or bioengineered organism catastrophe this century, when will it happen?

Total Forecasters37

Community Prediction2054-06-06 (2041-12-24 - 2066-07-10)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	2041	2054	2066
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	2041	—
median	2054	—
upper 75%	2066	—

Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Aug 13, 2019

Closes:

Jan 1, 2095

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

Health & Pandemics

Natural Sciences

Gene drive

Genetically modified virus

Biology

Genetics

Biotechnology and Bioengineering

Covid prophet who predicted pandemic SEVEN YEARS before it spread reveals the terrifying next 'big one'... and when it could hit

Daily Mail•Mar 1, 2025

Opinion | Recent Virus Research Should Raise Alarm

New York Times•Mar 3, 2025

Techno-Hell: Google AI Has Entered the Pharma Game in a Big Way

PJ Media•Mar 5, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

23%

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

2052-08-27

If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen?

2036-07-05

Comments

? comments