Question
When will the odds ratio of Metaculus' community prediction of the chance of AI catastrophe by 2100 either half or double from its value on 2019-08-21?
Resolved :Mar 1, 20202022-11-11Total Forecasters27
Community Prediction2022-11-11 (2020-09-10 - 2029-12-31)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | Sep 2020 | — |
| median | Nov 2022 | — |
| upper 75% | Dec 2029 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2060-01-01 | 1.0% | — |
What was the final result?Mar 1, 2020
Community Baseline Score
0.1
Community Peer Score
0.2
Authors:
Opened:Aug 23, 2019
Closes:Jan 1, 2095
Resolves:Jan 1, 2095
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Aug 23, 2019
Closes:Jan 1, 2095
Resolves:Jan 1, 2095
