Question

What will be the best score on Cybench by December 31st 2025?

Total Forecasters8

Community Prediction70.3 (59.3 - 80)

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CDF

weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	59.31	70.31	79.96
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	59.31	—
median	70.31	—
upper 75%	79.96	—

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Dec 4, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

AI 2025 Forecasting Survey

Artificial Intelligence

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What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025?

1.25

What will be the best performance on SWE-bench Verified by December 31st 2025?

89.3

What will be the best performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2025?

65.7

Comments

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Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Dec 4, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

AI 2025 Forecasting Survey

Artificial Intelligence

Experts share chilling warning over DeepSeek as it sparks 'Lord Of the Rings race' for superhuman intelligence

Daily Mail•Feb 15, 2025

Global disunity, energy concerns and the shadow of Musk: key takeaways from the Paris AI summit

Guardian•Feb 16, 2025

DeepSeek: Everything you need to know about the AI chatbot app

TechCrunch•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025?

1.25

What will be the best performance on SWE-bench Verified by December 31st 2025?

89.3

What will be the best performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2025?

65.7