Question

What will be the best performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2025?

Total Forecasters15

Community Prediction65.7 (52 - 78.5)

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CDF

weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	51.98	65.73	78.45
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	51.98	—
median	65.73	—
upper 75%	78.45	—

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Dec 4, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

AI 2025 Forecasting Survey

Artificial Intelligence

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What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025?

1.25

What will be the best performance on SWE-bench Verified by December 31st 2025?

89.3

What will be the best performance on OSWorld by December 31st 2025?

70.8

Comments

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Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Dec 4, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

AI 2025 Forecasting Survey

Artificial Intelligence

AI Embodies Our Education Standards, For Better or Worse

Psychology Today•Feb 12, 2025

These researchers used NPR Sunday Puzzle questions to benchmark AI ‘reasoning’ models

TechCrunch•Feb 17, 2025

The shine began to wear off AI in 2024 as advances slowed down

New Scientist•Feb 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025?

1.25

What will be the best performance on SWE-bench Verified by December 31st 2025?

89.3

What will be the best performance on OSWorld by December 31st 2025?

70.8