Question

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on CBRN?

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Total Forecasters6

Community Prediction27% (15% - 40%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 27%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI 2025 Forecasting Survey

Artificial Intelligence

What to Know About the New U.S. AI Diffusion Policy and Export Controls

•Jan 14, 2025

The Pentagon says AI is speeding up its ‘kill chain’

TechCrunch•Jan 20, 2025

Collaborative research on AI safety is vital

Guardian•Jan 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Cybersecurity?

80%

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Model Autonomy?

75%

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?

40%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI 2025 Forecasting Survey

Artificial Intelligence

What to Know About the New U.S. AI Diffusion Policy and Export Controls

•Jan 14, 2025

The Pentagon says AI is speeding up its ‘kill chain’

TechCrunch•Jan 20, 2025

Collaborative research on AI safety is vital

Guardian•Jan 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Cybersecurity?

80%

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Model Autonomy?

75%

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?

40%