Question

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?

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Total Forecasters8

Community Prediction40% (30% - 52%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 40%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI 2025 Forecasting Survey

Artificial Intelligence

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Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Model Autonomy?

75%

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Cybersecurity?

80%

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on CBRN?

27%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI 2025 Forecasting Survey

Artificial Intelligence

Meta's AI Studio Sparks Controversy with Unregulated Chatbot Creations

•Jan 15, 2025

Can the First Amendment Accommodate an AI Solution?

American Thinker•Jan 18, 2025

These are Sam Altman's predictions on how the world might change with AI

Business Insider•Jan 18, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Model Autonomy?

75%

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Cybersecurity?

80%

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on CBRN?

27%