Question

How many Starlink satellites will be in operation on January 1, 2028?

Total Forecasters100

Community Prediction11.1k (7.12k - 17.1k)

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weight:

	<1	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>100k
community	0.7%	7.122k	11.1k	17.07k	1.7%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<1	0.7%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	7.122k	—
median	11.1k	—
upper 75%	17.07k	—
Upper bound
>100k	1.7%	—

Authors:

Sylvain

Opened:

Sep 8, 2019

Closes:

Jan 1, 2028

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2028

Elon Musk's Starship rocket prepares to fly again

NPR Online News•Mar 4, 2025

SpaceX to launch world's most powerful rocket after previous Starship exploded mid-flight

Daily Mail•Mar 4, 2025

Elon Musk’s Starlink business could soon tap into $42 billion federal program

CNN•Mar 7, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

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Authors:

Sylvain

Opened:

Sep 8, 2019

Closes:

Jan 1, 2028

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2028

Elon Musk's Starship rocket prepares to fly again

NPR Online News•Mar 4, 2025

SpaceX to launch world's most powerful rocket after previous Starship exploded mid-flight

Daily Mail•Mar 4, 2025

Elon Musk’s Starlink business could soon tap into $42 billion federal program

CNN•Mar 7, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the number of satellites launched in each of the following years?

3.52k

What will be the number of operational satellites in each year?

10k

When will Starlink be spun out from SpaceX?

2027-03-13