Question

Will Mars have a permanent population of 10,000 before the Moon does?

41 comments41

Total Forecasters239

Community Prediction39.1% (20% - 55%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 39.1%

Authors:

SynthBioWpnsKill1GHum2050

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Moon and Mars – Not a pie in the sky if the FAA and EPA will just get out of the way

American Thinker•Dec 15, 2024

Cost overruns jeopardize Artemis moon landing, threaten NASA SLS rocket's future

USA Today•Dec 16, 2024

Our Martian heritage must be preserved, say leading scientists

Guardian•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many humans will have landed on the moon before anyone does on Mars?

40.5

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

0.5%

What will be the maximum number of people simultaneously on the moon in 2030?

2.57

Comments

? comments

Authors:

SynthBioWpnsKill1GHum2050

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Moon and Mars – Not a pie in the sky if the FAA and EPA will just get out of the way

American Thinker•Dec 15, 2024

Cost overruns jeopardize Artemis moon landing, threaten NASA SLS rocket's future

USA Today•Dec 16, 2024

Our Martian heritage must be preserved, say leading scientists

Guardian•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many humans will have landed on the moon before anyone does on Mars?

40.5

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

0.5%

What will be the maximum number of people simultaneously on the moon in 2030?

2.57

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Will Mars have a permanent population of 10,000 before the Moon does?

Make a Prediction

How many humans will have landed on the moon before anyone does on Mars?

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

What will be the maximum number of people simultaneously on the moon in 2030?

Comments

How many humans will have landed on the moon before anyone does on Mars?

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

What will be the maximum number of people simultaneously on the moon in 2030?

How many humans will have landed on the moon before anyone does on Mars?

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

What will be the maximum number of people simultaneously on the moon in 2030?

How many humans will have landed on the moon before anyone does on Mars?

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

What will be the maximum number of people simultaneously on the moon in 2030?