Question

Will Mars have a permanent population of 10,000 before the Moon does?

41 comments41

Total Forecasters239

Community Prediction39.1% (20% - 55%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 39.1%

Authors:

SynthBioWpnsKill1GHum2050

Opened:

Sep 24, 2019

Closes:

Dec 31, 2099

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2099

Trump's new Mars plan appears to be more of a favor for Elon Musk

MSNBC•Jan 26, 2025

Transforming the Moon Into Humanity’s First Space Hub

Wired•Jan 27, 2025

NASA moon missions in 2025: Five missions will help astronauts return to the moon

USA Today•Jan 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many humans will have landed on the moon before anyone does on Mars?

40.5

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

0.3%

What will be the maximum number of people simultaneously on the moon in 2030?

2.5

Comments

? comments

Authors:

SynthBioWpnsKill1GHum2050

Opened:

Sep 24, 2019

Closes:

Dec 31, 2099

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2099

Trump's new Mars plan appears to be more of a favor for Elon Musk

MSNBC•Jan 26, 2025

Transforming the Moon Into Humanity’s First Space Hub

Wired•Jan 27, 2025

NASA moon missions in 2025: Five missions will help astronauts return to the moon

USA Today•Jan 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many humans will have landed on the moon before anyone does on Mars?

40.5

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

0.3%

What will be the maximum number of people simultaneously on the moon in 2030?

2.5