Question

Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?

25 comments25

Total Forecasters1301

Community Prediction

60%

(40% - 75%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 60%

Authors:

skmmcj

Opened:

Jan 10, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 1, 2025

ACX 2025 Prediction Contest

Artificial Intelligence

2025 Leaderboard

Professor Answers AI Questions

Wired•Mar 26, 2025

Reid Hoffman: ‘Start using AI deeply. It is a huge intelligence amplifier’

Guardian•Mar 23, 2025

Your A.I. Lover Will Change You

New Yorker•Mar 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Rob Long believe there is conscious AI before 2030?

51%

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

90%

Will a Fields medalist have spent at least a year trying AI safety research before the following years?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

skmmcj

Opened:

Jan 10, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 1, 2025

ACX 2025 Prediction Contest

Artificial Intelligence

2025 Leaderboard

Professor Answers AI Questions

Wired•Mar 26, 2025

Reid Hoffman: ‘Start using AI deeply. It is a huge intelligence amplifier’

Guardian•Mar 23, 2025

Your A.I. Lover Will Change You

New Yorker•Mar 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Rob Long believe there is conscious AI before 2030?

51%

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

90%

MetaculusM

Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?

Make a Prediction

Will Rob Long believe there is conscious AI before 2030?

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

Will a Fields medalist have spent at least a year trying AI safety research before the following years?

Comments

Will Rob Long believe there is conscious AI before 2030?

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

Will a Fields medalist have spent at least a year trying AI safety research before the following years?

We use cookies 🍪 to understand how you use Metaculus and to improve your experience.