Question

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

114 comments114

Total Forecasters2032

Community Prediction60% (35% - 74%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 60%

Authors:

skmmcj

Opened:

Jan 10, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

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Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

Five years after AGI, will there have been a World War III?

15%

Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026?

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