Question

Will a large-scale cyberattack in which Generative AI plays an important causal role occur by December 31, 2025?

no comments0

Total Forecasters1

Community Prediction5% (5% - 5%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 5%

Authors:

lbarbosa

Opened:

Jan 5, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2026

Gary Marcus's AI Forecasts

Technology

Artificial Intelligence

Meta says it may stop development of AI systems it deems too risky

TechCrunch•Feb 16, 2025

Cyber-Year in Review: What does Trump need to do in 2025?

American Thinker•Feb 16, 2025

Global disunity, energy concerns and the shadow of Musk: key takeaways from the Paris AI summit

Guardian•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a "GPT-5 level" model, as judged by community consensus, released by December 31, 2025?

Will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive in 2025?

33%

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Cybersecurity?

85%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

lbarbosa

Opened:

Jan 5, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2026

Gary Marcus's AI Forecasts

Technology

Artificial Intelligence

Meta says it may stop development of AI systems it deems too risky

TechCrunch•Feb 16, 2025

Cyber-Year in Review: What does Trump need to do in 2025?

American Thinker•Feb 16, 2025

Global disunity, energy concerns and the shadow of Musk: key takeaways from the Paris AI summit

Guardian•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a "GPT-5 level" model, as judged by community consensus, released by December 31, 2025?

Will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive in 2025?

33%

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Cybersecurity?

85%