Question

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

31 comments31

Total Forecasters166

Community Prediction80% (68.2% - 90%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 80%

Authors:

randallburns

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Cuban Missile Crisis

Nuclear terrorism

What Would World War III Look Like?

Newsweek•Dec 10, 2024

3 Signs Show if Putin Is Getting Serious About Using Nuclear Weapons

Newsweek•Dec 10, 2024

Nobel laureate warns Putin about danger of nuclear weapons

Raw Story•Dec 10, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?

11%

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

28%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

randallburns

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Cuban Missile Crisis

Nuclear terrorism

What Would World War III Look Like?

Newsweek•Dec 10, 2024

3 Signs Show if Putin Is Getting Serious About Using Nuclear Weapons

Newsweek•Dec 10, 2024

Nobel laureate warns Putin about danger of nuclear weapons

Raw Story•Dec 10, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?

11%

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

28%

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Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

Make a Prediction

Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

Comments

Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?