Question

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

31 comments31

Total Forecasters171

Community Prediction80% (60% - 89%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 80%

Authors:

randallburns

Opened:

Oct 8, 2019

Closes:

Jan 1, 2035

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Cuban Missile Crisis

Nuclear terrorism

A brief history of missing US nuclear weapons

Snopes•Feb 13, 2025

It’s time the world understands a nuclear war cannot be won

Al Jazeera•Feb 16, 2025

Joe Biden Under Pressure To Take Away Donald Trump's Nuclear War Power

Newsweek•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?

11%

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

25%

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

23%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

randallburns

Opened:

Oct 8, 2019

Closes:

Jan 1, 2035

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Cuban Missile Crisis

Nuclear terrorism

A brief history of missing US nuclear weapons

Snopes•Feb 13, 2025

It’s time the world understands a nuclear war cannot be won

Al Jazeera•Feb 16, 2025

Joe Biden Under Pressure To Take Away Donald Trump's Nuclear War Power

Newsweek•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?

11%

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

25%

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

23%