MetaculusM

Question

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

29

Total Forecasters171

Community Prediction

80%

(60% - 89%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 80%

Authors:

Opened:

Oct 8, 2019

Closes:

Jan 1, 2035

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 9, 2019

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Cuban Missile Crisis

Nuclear terrorism

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Opened:

Oct 8, 2019

Closes:

Jan 1, 2035

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 9, 2019

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Cuban Missile Crisis

Nuclear terrorism