MetaculusM

Question

Will any frontier model be released in 2029 without a third-party evaluation of dangerous capabilities?

Total Forecasters5

Community Prediction60% (45% - 74%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 60%

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Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Readiness Index

Artificial Intelligence

AI benchmarking organization criticized for waiting to disclose funding from OpenAI

TechCrunch•Jan 20, 2025

DeepSeek claims its reasoning model beats OpenAI’s o1 on certain benchmarks

TechCrunch•Jan 21, 2025

OpenAI’s agent tool may be nearing release

TechCrunch•Jan 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AGI Readiness Index

Artificial Intelligence

AI benchmarking organization criticized for waiting to disclose funding from OpenAI

TechCrunch•Jan 20, 2025

DeepSeek claims its reasoning model beats OpenAI’s o1 on certain benchmarks

TechCrunch•Jan 21, 2025

OpenAI’s agent tool may be nearing release

TechCrunch•Jan 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch