M

Question

What will be the difference between the Arena Score of o3 and the next best model on Chatbot Arena, on April 5, 2025?

Community Prediction-30-19-7.9831425Jan 28Jan 29Jan 30Jan 31Feb 01Feb 02Feb 03Feb 04Feb 05Feb 06Feb 07Feb 08Feb 09Feb 10Feb 11Feb 12Feb 13Feb 14Feb 15Feb 16Feb 17Feb 18Feb 19Feb 20now
Total Forecasters84
Community Prediction-30 (-30 - -15.8)

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CDF

-30-27-24-21-18-15-12-9-6-3036912151821242730
weight:
Lower boundcommunityMy Prediction
<-3057.3%
Quartiles
lower 25%<-30
median<-30
upper 75%-15.78
Upper bound
>301.3%
Authors:
Opened:Jan 24, 2025
Closes:Mar 15, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Apr 5, 2025

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