Question

How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?

14 comments14

Total Forecasters117

Community Prediction54.9

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>1M

...

5.446

54.92

1.503k

4.0%

Authors:

Pablo

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

15%

How many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be approved for consumption by the FDA on July 31, 2025?

7.58

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

55.2%

Comments

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Authors:

Pablo

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Scientists dismayed as UK ministers clear way for gene editing of crops - but not animals

Guardian•Nov 4, 2024

Fewer triplets are being born in the US for this surprising reason

New York Post•Nov 4, 2024

Serial sperm donors and lack of regulation create risks and leave children seeking answers

CBS•Nov 4, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

15%

How many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be approved for consumption by the FDA on July 31, 2025?

7.58

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

55.2%